Land Market Surges 63% in Fauquier County: Q3 2025 Market Insights

Market Overview

Fauquier County’s land market delivered a remarkable performance in Q3 2025, with median sale prices surging 63% quarter-over-quarter to $432,500—the highest level recorded in the past five years. The third quarter marked a decisive reversal from Q2’s softer conditions, as transaction volumes held steady at 24 closed sales while buyer competition intensified across all property segments.

The dramatic price acceleration reflects a confluence of factors: constrained inventory levels, renewed investor interest in rural markets, and persistent demand for larger acreage properties. Days on market increased to 46.5 days from Q2’s historic low of 20.5 days, suggesting a normalization of sales velocity rather than weakening demand. The sale-price-to-list-price ratio compressed slightly to 90.1%, indicating buyers are exercising greater price discipline even as competition remains elevated.

This quarter’s data reveals a market transitioning from the rapid turnover dynamics of spring 2025 to a more deliberate pricing environment—one where quality properties command premium valuations while secondary listings face extended marketing periods.

Quarter-over-Quarter Analysis

Q3 2025 represented a stark departure from the preceding quarter’s performance. The 63% median price increase from $265,000 to $432,500 stands as the most significant quarterly appreciation in our tracking history, driven primarily by a shift in transaction mix toward higher-value properties. Average sale prices rose 80% to $854,362, reflecting substantial activity in the premium land segment.

Marketing timelines extended considerably: median days on market climbed from 20.5 to 46.5 days, while average DOM increased from 90 to 141 days. This divergence between median and average metrics indicates a bifurcated market where premium properties sell swiftly while lower-tier inventory experiences protracted listing periods.

The sale-price-to-list-price ratio declined modestly from 90.7% to 90.1%, suggesting sellers are testing pricing thresholds more aggressively. Transaction volume remained stable at 24 closed sales, matching Q2’s count despite the seasonal transition into fall—a period historically characterized by declining activity.

New listings held at 46 properties, maintaining the elevated supply levels established in Q2. This inventory stability, combined with rising prices, points to genuine demand strength rather than supply-constrained artificial scarcity.

Year-over-Year Trends

The annual comparison reveals transformative market dynamics. Comparing Q3 2025 to Q3 2024 shows median prices increased 47% from $295,000 to $432,500, while closed sales expanded 50% from 16 to 24 transactions. This simultaneous growth in volume and pricing represents a rare combination indicative of robust fundamental demand.

Average sale prices nearly doubled year-over-year, rising from $942,778 to $854,362—though this apparent decline reflects compositional shifts rather than market weakness. The Q3 2024 figure was inflated by several outlier transactions in the 50+ acre segment, whereas Q3 2025 featured more balanced activity across size categories.

Marketing efficiency improved dramatically: median DOM decreased from 72.5 to 46.5 days, signaling stronger buyer urgency. However, the sale-price-to-list-price ratio declined from 94.4% to 90.1%, suggesting the market has shifted from the seller-dominated conditions of 2024 to a more balanced negotiating environment.

Lot Size Distribution

Q3 2025 transaction composition skewed toward smaller parcels and large estates, with relatively light activity in the mid-size segments. Properties under 5 acres led with 9 closed sales (38% of volume), followed by the 50+ acre category with 5 transactions (21%). The 5-10 acre segment recorded 5 sales, while 10-20 acres and 20-50 acres combined for just 5 transactions.

This distribution pattern differs notably from historical norms. In 2020, the 0-5 acre and 50+ acre categories combined represented 54% of transactions; in Q3 2025, these same segments captured 58% of activity—indicating persistent polarization between entry-level buyers seeking smaller parcels and investors targeting substantial acreage holdings.

Average acreage within the 0-5 acre band contracted to 2.1 acres from 2.0 acres in 2024, suggesting heightened demand for smaller, more affordable lots near developed areas. Conversely, the 50+ acre segment averaged 116.2 acres per transaction, down from 136.6 acres in 2024 but still representing significant investor-scale acquisitions.

The 10-20 acre “Goldilocks zone”—traditionally popular with custom home builders and small farm operators—saw only 2 transactions averaging 12.5 acres. This weakness in the middle market reflects pricing pressure that has pushed these properties beyond the reach of typical retail buyers while remaining too small for institutional interest.

Price Per Acre Trends

Per-acre valuations tell the story of diverging market segments. The 0-5 acre category commanded $151,444 per acre in Q3 2025, representing a 15% three-year increase from 2022’s $131,346 and a 66% five-year appreciation from 2020’s $91,273. This sustained growth reflects Fauquier County’s ongoing transition from rural agriculture to exurban residential development.

Conversely, the 5-10 acre segment experienced pricing compression, declining 11% over three years to $29,654 per acre. This represents the only size category showing negative three-year performance, indicating oversupply or diminished buyer interest in this specific range—likely as prospective buyers either opt for smaller, more affordable parcels or scale up to larger investment properties.

Mid-size categories (10-20 acres and 20-50 acres) posted solid appreciation: 12% and 17% respectively over three years. Five-year gains in these segments reached 30-31%, demonstrating consistent long-term value retention despite cyclical volatility.

The 50+ acre segment delivered the strongest momentum, surging 44% over three years and 53% over five years to $10,759 per acre. While still the lowest per-acre valuation, this category’s growth trajectory suggests increasing recognition of Fauquier County as an attractive destination for conservation buyers, agricultural investors, and land banking strategies.

Strategic Takeaways

For Buyers

Focus on value segments experiencing pricing normalization. The 5-10 acre category’s 11% three-year decline presents compelling opportunities for buyers seeking manageable acreage without premium pricing. Marketing timelines have extended to 46.5 median days, providing negotiating leverage absent during Q2’s compressed timeframes.

Exercise patience with premium properties. The 10% gap between asking and selling prices indicates sellers are testing market tolerance for higher valuations. Properties priced aggressively relative to comparable sales will face extended marketing periods, creating opportunities for strategic offers on overpriced listings.

Consider off-season acquisitions. As Q3 transitions to Q4, seasonal softening typically reduces buyer competition. Motivated sellers facing year-end tax considerations or carrying cost pressures may accept more favorable terms.

For Sellers

Capitalize on strong momentum in small-parcel and large-estate segments. Properties under 5 acres and those exceeding 50 acres are capturing disproportionate buyer interest. Sellers in these categories should price competitively to capture the active buyer pool while market sentiment remains favorable.

Adjust expectations for mid-size properties. The 10-20 acre segment’s light transaction volume and the 5-10 acre category’s pricing compression require realistic valuation approaches. Sellers should prioritize quick sales at market-clearing prices rather than testing unproven valuations.

Prepare for extended marketing periods. With median DOM rising to 46.5 days and the SP/LP ratio at 90.1%, properties will require 45-60 days of exposure to secure qualified buyers. Ensure property presentation, access, and documentation are optimized from day one.

For Developers and Investors

Target the 50+ acre segment for institutional acquisitions. Strong 44% three-year price growth combined with consistent transaction flow indicates sustainable demand from conservation buyers and agricultural investors. At $10,759 per acre, these properties remain attractively priced relative to development-ready land.

Monitor the 0-5 acre category for subdivision opportunities. At $151,444 per acre and 2.1 average acres per transaction, this segment demonstrates robust retail demand. Larger parcels with subdivision potential may justify premium acquisition prices if positioned near growth corridors or utility infrastructure.

Exercise caution in the middle market. The 5-10 acre category’s pricing weakness and 10-20 acre segment’s transaction scarcity suggest limited near-term development or investment opportunities. Focus capital deployment on the market’s performing extremes rather than the struggling middle.

Market Outlook

Fauquier County’s land market enters Q4 2025 from a position of strength, with price appreciation outpacing regional benchmarks and transaction volumes recovering from 2024’s cyclical trough. Several factors support continued positive momentum through year-end and into 2026:

Near-term (Q4 2025): Expect seasonal deceleration in transaction volume as typical October-December patterns assert themselves. Median prices should remain elevated above $400,000, though average prices may compress if fewer high-value transactions close. Days on market will likely extend to 60+ days as buyer urgency diminishes.

Mid-term (2026 outlook): The market’s fundamental drivers—exurban migration trends, remote work flexibility, and Washington D.C. metropolitan area growth pressure—remain intact. Fauquier County’s proximity to employment centers, combined with its agricultural preservation policies limiting supply, creates structural support for continued appreciation.

Risk factors: Rising interest rate environments could dampen investor demand, particularly for larger acreage acquisitions requiring financing. Additionally, the 5-10 acre segment’s weakness may spread to adjacent size categories if buyer preferences continue polarizing toward the extremes.

Opportunity zones: The 50+ acre segment’s momentum suggests early-stage repricing as institutional capital recognizes Fauquier’s investment merit. Properties offering development optionality, conservation easement potential, or agricultural income streams present asymmetric upside in the current environment.

Conclusion

Q3 2025 demonstrated Fauquier County’s land market operating at peak performance, with the 63% quarterly median price increase to $432,500 marking a generational appreciation event. Transaction volumes recovered to 24 closed sales while maintaining strong price discovery across most segments, validating the market’s depth beyond temporary momentum.

The data reveals a market in transition: from the hyper-competitive spring conditions of Q2 2025 to a more deliberate fall environment where quality assets command justified premiums while secondary properties face extended marketing cycles. Price-per-acre trends show clear bifurcation, with small parcels and large estates appreciating rapidly while mid-size properties struggle for buyer attention.

For market participants, the strategic imperative is clear: align positioning with the market’s demonstrated preferences. Small-parcel buyers, large-acreage investors, and strategically-focused sellers will find compelling opportunities in Q4 2025 and beyond, provided they operate with data-driven precision rather than outdated assumptions.